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INVESTED IN MUTUAL FUND ?? FACING LOSSES???

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Mutual funds offload Rs 10,000 cr of shares by mcx operator

Mutual funds dealt shares worth over Rs 10,000 crore during the first 11 calendars month of the most recent fiscal year on kept salvation force per unit area. 
In contrast, they pumped in a staggering Rs 4.43 lakh crore in the debt market during the time period. 

Mutual funds offloaded Rs 10,319 crore of shares in the first 11 months of this fiscal year, according to data with market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India. 
Fund businesses firm have been net marketers in the equity market since September, while they were net buyers of shares to the tune of Rs 1,607 crore in August. 

Mutual funds sold equities in nine of the first 11 months and were net buyers in May and August. 
The bighearted outflow in equities during this period was in October, when fund businesses firm pulled out Rs 4,018 crore. 

Besides, the quantity of leaves in equity-oriented strategies plunged by more 35 lakh due to volatility in the stock exchange

Mutual funds collect money from investors and buy stocks, admiting IPOs (primary market), and bonds. 

Market players believe that fickle stock exchange, the depreciating rupee and an uncertain interest rate regime were the factors that determined investment flow in the mutual fund industry this fiscal year. 

"During the most recent fiscal, mutual funds have seen a rise in influxes primarily due to gains in debt fund. Nevertheless, equity funds have been facing redemption pressure for some time," a market player noted. 

"Equity fund investors have been withdrawal method at higher levels of the market, indicating their lack of trust in the market's ability to sustain at these levels," he added. 

Nevertheless, analysts are optimistic about equity strategies in 2014 on hopes that a stable government after the general elections will help boost the stock exchange.

Gold's next move? More bullish or Bearish from today??

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Gold prices eased slightly in Asian trade on Friday, retracing overnight gains in the U.S. after the European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged and sparked demand for the single currency, which came at the greenback's expense.

Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Friday as the markets shrugged off bearish factors such as ample U.S. supplies and looked ahead to prospects of renewed flareups in the Ukraine over a referendum on the sovereignty of the Crimean peninsula

As the hip-hop duo Outcast once supposed, You can plan a pretty picnic, but you cant predict the weather. Big Boi and Andre 3000 couldve been describing the commodity markets so far this year. 


gold commodity
From drought in Brazil to the arctic blast  that swept across North America uttermost weather condition drove coffee, sugar and natural gas into bull markets  even as escalating political tension in Ukraine created supply risks for energy and grains. The rally for raw materials was a surprise to banks from Citigroup Inc. to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. that had forecast 2014 would mark a continuance of last years slump.xEOL.xBL.Commodity funds recorded inflows of $ 1.57 billion last month, the first increase since September, after withdrawals last year reached a record $ 43.3 billion, according to researcher EPFR Global. Investors who shunned gold as the metal slumped into a bear market in 2013 increased holdings through exchange-traded funds in February for the first time  | first} since 2012. Dryness in Brazil erased the prospect of a record coffee crop as prices jumped, after the longest slide in two decades. 

Its a series of mostly unrelated factors that are catching commodities  at once when they've already been heavily sold, said Paul Christopher, the St. Louis-based chief international strategist at Wells Fargo Qualified personnel, which manages $ 1.4 trillion. A lot of these factors are weather condition related and will fade. I dont think this is a viable opportunity for a long term investor. Its more of a trading opportunity.. 
xBL .2014 Gains. 

The Standard & Poors GSCI Spot Index (BUSY) of 24 commodities climbed 3.1 percent this year, led by an 77 percent surge for coffee and gains for hogs, corn and gold. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 1.1 percent, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge against 10 major trading partners, slid 0.6 percent. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index rose 1.6 percent. 

The GSCI index fell 2.2 percent last year, the first decline since the global recession in 2008, as a decade of higher prices spurred producers to build new mines, drill more wells and expand crop planting. Increased supply combined with slowing growth in China, the biggest user of everything from soybeans to zinc and cotton, prompted New York-based Goldman and Citigroup to declare an end to the commodity super cycle that caused raw materials to almost quadruple since 2001. 

While many investors threw in the towel after last years slump, they shouldnt give up on commodities, said Michael Aronstein, who correctly predicted the plunge in raw materials in 2008 and the 2009 rebound. 

Global Expansion.xEOL.xBL.Commodities will just be normal cyclical participants in an accelerating expansion globally, said Aronstein, the president and chief investment officer of Marketfield Asset Management LLC in New York. You're returning to local supply-demand functions in commodities. Aronstein said he started buying commodity-related equities at the end of 2013. 

The U.S. economy will grow 2.9 percent this year, accelerating from 1.9 percent in 2013, a Bloomberg survey shows. The euro area will expand by 1.1 percent after a contraction of 0.5 percent last year. Eighteen of the 24 commodities in the GSCI index climbed in 2014, and 10 of them have posted gains of 10 percent or more. 

Its been a year full of surprises, without doubt about that, said David Rosenberg, the Toronto-based chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, which manages about $ 6.8 billion. There is a time-worn relationship between overall global growth and the commodity complex. Between what the U.S. is going to do this year and what Europe is going to do, global growth is going to be accelerating.. 

Coffee, Crude. 

Arabica coffee, the bean variety favored by Starbucks Corp., reached a two year high this week amid the driest summer since 1972 for Brazil, the biggest grower. Crude oil jumped to the highest since September, reaching $ 105.22 a barrel in New York on March 3 as tensions escalated between Ukraine and Russia, the biggest energy exporter. Unusually frigid  weather condition in the U.S. boosted demand for heating fuel, while supplies of natural gas and coal will decline to six-year lows by the end of this month, government data show. 

The supply-and-demand outlook for individual commodities, rather than macroeconomics, is now driving prices, said Michael Haigh, the head of commodities research at Societe Generale SA in New York. Raw materials dont have much more downside because prices are near the cost of production, while the outlook for slowing growth in China and emerging markets  generally has already been factored in, he said. 

More Neutral. 

Citigroup has turned more neutral, though the bank still isnt bullish, said Aakash Doshi, a vice president of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. Geopolitical risk and weather condition spurred this years rally, and increased supplies will mean prices probably will dec.

why gold is holding 1335$ ,UKRAINE cues??

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Gold was trading in a tight range on Thursday, supported above $ 1,335 an ounce by weak US data, with investors awaiting further cues from developments in Ukraine and a key jobs report. 

gold news


Traders said they expect a quiet trading session ahead of Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report, which should help them gauge the strength of the labor market in the world's top economy and the outlook for the Federal Reserve's stimulus.

Tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine should meanwhile support gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset.

"In the next few days, the situation in Ukraine will continue to be uncertain and will keep the markets nervous. Because of that, I expect an upside potential in the short term for gold prices," said Alexis Garatti, an economist at Haitong International Research in Hong Kong.

Spot gold was trading nearly flat at $ 1,337 an ounce by 0331 GMT, after rising slightly by 0.2 percent in the previous session on soft data on US private hiring and services sector growth.

Gold hit a four-month high on Monday near $ 1,355 an ounce after Russia's {incursion} into Ukraine's Crimea region over the weekend. Russia and the West face their most serious confrontation since the Cold War over Ukraine, a major commodities exporter and strategic link between East and West.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis made little headway at talks in Paris on Wednesday.

The US State Department dropped diplomatic niceties and all but accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of lying about events in Ukraine, publishing a list of what it said were 10 of his "false claims.".

DATA EYED After recent data showed the US economy has been impacted by severe weather conditions, financial markets are looking towards a jobs report on Friday for direction. 


Jobs growth likely picked up enough in February to encourage the US Fed to continue to scale back its monetary stimulus, although the gain is likely to be tepid given the unrelentingly harsh winter weather.

"Since there has been no major development in Ukraine, people are looking for the nonfarm data before taking any big positions," said one gold trader.

Among other precious metals, platinum was trading near a six-month high on supply worries.

Wage talks between the world's top platinum producers and South Africa's Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union collapsed on Wednesday, {dashing hopes  | disappointment} for an end to a crippling six-week strike.

why todays Gold rate in MCX and Comex falling because of ?? : Commodity News

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Gold in MCX and Comex falling because of ?? : latest commodity news

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Article about MCX GOLD movement today read below

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Gold prices fell more 1 % on Tuesday, as investor demand for safe haven assets declined as tensions over the political and military crisis between Russian and Ukraine eased. 
Gold extends losses following Putin comments Gold futures fall more 1 % as Ukraine-Russia concerns ease. 



On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery decreased to a session low of $ 1,331.70 a ounce. Prices last traded at $ 1,333.30 an ounce during U.S. morning hours, down 1.25 %, or $ 17.00. 
Gold futures rallied to $ 1,355.00 an ounce on Monday, the most since October 30, before trimming gains to settle at $ 1,350.30, up 2.17 %, or $ 28.70. 
Prices were likely to find support at $ 1,319.30 a ounce, the low from February 28 and resistance at $ 1,355.00, the high from March 3. 



Meanwhile, silver for May delivery tumbled 1.8 %, or $ 0.38 cents, to trade at $ 21.10 a ounce. The May contract ended Mondays session up 1.15 %, or $ 0.24 cents, to settle at $ 21.48 an ounce. 



Silver futures were likely to find keep at $ 21.02 a ounce, the low from February 27 and resistance at $ 21.74, the high from March 3. 



Speaking at press conference earlier in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he currently sees no need to use military unit in Ukraine, but Russia has the option to do so. He added that use of military unit is a choice of pis alter. 
Putin also said that sanctions against Russia would cause mutual damage and any threats towards Russia would be counter-productive. 
Gold prices were already on the decline as the chance of military conflict in Ukraine eased after the Russian defense minister ordered troops engaged in military exercises around Ukraine's margins to return to their bases. 
Futures beat up sharply on Monday as geopolitical tensities mounted after Russia's parliament authorized President Putin to use military group in Ukraine. 
Elsewhere on the Comex, copper futures for May delivery came up 0.6 % to trade at $ 3.191 a pound, as investors looked ahead to the start of Chinas National Peoples Congress annual meeting on Wednesday. 
The latest meeting of the legislature, the first to be overseen by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Kenning, comes amid lingering concerns over the health of the country's economy. 
The Asian nation is the worlds largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40 % of world consumption last year.

Govt hikes import tariff value of Bullion

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Govt hikes import tariff value of gold, silver

Government on Friday hiked the import tariff value on gold and silver to $433 per 10 grams and $699 per kg, respectively, taking into account the volatility in the precious metals' global prices.
Import tariff value is the base price at which customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing. The tariff value is revised on a fortnightly basis after analyzing the global price trend.
Till Thursday, the import tariff value on gold was at $421/10 grams, while on silver it stood at $R663/kg.
The notification in this regard has been issued by the Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC).
In London, gold prices on Friday fell by 0.35 per cent to $1,327.20 an ounce and silver by 0.42 per cent to $21.17 an ounce. Domestic gold and silver prices remained down following weak global price trend.
Gold is the second largest import item for India after petroleum. Government has taken several measures to curb gold shipments to address the high current account deficit.
According to the jewelers body, total gold imports are expected to be not more than 550 tonnes this fiscal due to these restrictions, from 845 tonnes in the last fiscal.

Common errors you should avoid while investing to save tax : MCX Operator

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Mistakes We Make
(Picture for representation only)

A young married couple walks into the local branch of a private bank on a cloudy, cold weekday of January. Both of them are getting late for office, but have enough time tostart a tax-saving fixed deposit (FD).
The bank executive, instead, sells them a 'better' product, whose gains are non-taxable, unlike FDs.
The product that he offers is a tax-saving plan that also gives them life cover, guaranteed returns and bonus. And guess what, they can withdraw the money after five years, when they will receive the premium along with added bonus. They think it's a good deal and write the cheque.
This story is repeated so many times every year between January and March. The ending, too, is always the same-people making costly financial mistakes while investing to save tax or declaring expenses against which they can claim tax deduction. We discuss a few such mistakes.

DELAYING TAX-SAVING INVESTMENTS:

The most vulnerable are those who consider tax saving as once-in-a-year ritual to be repeated at the end of every financial year.
The first casualty is the monthly budget, which may go haywire because of a large one-time investment. Therefore, the mantra is to plan early and invest in a staggered manner.
You can start systematic investment in a tax-saving fund or put a small amount every month in Pubic Provident Fund (PPF) or National Pension System (NPS). Both PPF and NPS allow 12 transactions a year.
INVESTING IN ENDOWMENT INSURANCE PLANS: This usually happens when you walk into a bank and seek the advice of its executives. Banks usually prefer to sell a product that gets them the highest commission, which is invariably an endowment insurance plan. So, while they receive 30-35% of the first-year premium as commission and 5% in the subsequent years, the investor earns 6-7% a year if he pays premium for the full term.
Most people do not realise that an endowment plan is a long-term product with a maturity period of 10-20 years. If you pay premium for only five years and then redeem the investment, it's likely that you will get less than even your principal. They also do not realise that a part of the endowment plan premium goes towards mortality charges and distributor commission.
All you need is a simple investment plan such as a tax-saving mutual fund or PPF, both of which give taxfree returns. For insurance, buy a term plan. The premium is eligible for tax deductible.
HAVING TOO MUCH MONEY IN FDs AND NSCs:
Another common tax-saving strategy involves starting a fiveyear FD or purchasing national saving certificates (NSC). The interest earned on both is taxed, which makes these products less attractive. Interest earned on both FDs and NSCs is taxed as per the person's income tax slab. Besides, the interest rate on tax-savings FDs is lower than what normal FDs pay.
"FDs and NSCs give post-tax returns that are less than the inflation rate," says Tanwir Alam, CEO and founder, Fincart, a financial planning company.
TAX-SAVING OUT OF SYNC WITH OVERALL PORTFOLIO:
The tax-saving investment is a subset of your overall portfolio. The two should not be viewed separately.
"Not choosing tax-saving options keeping in mind the overall portfolio is wrong. It causes imbalance," says certified financial planner Pankaj Mathpal.
For example, if your overall portfolio is equityheavy, you may want to save tax using fixed income products such as PPF.
But most investors usually have a debt-heavy portfolio due to employee provident fund, fixed deposits, endowment plans, etc. So, they can look at tax-saving mutual funds, which have 100% exposure to equity, or NPS, where equity exposure is up to 50%.
You must figure out the ideal equity-debt ratio for your portfolio and allocate funds accordingly. The equity-debt ratio of your portfolio will depend upon your age, risk appetite and financial goals.
NOT LOOKING BEYOND SECTION 80 C:
People often do know that they can save tax over and above the Section 80C limit of Rs 1 lakh. Interest on housing and education loans, health insurance premium, medical expenses, etc, are also eligible for income tax deduction. Apart from these, donations to political parties and for scientific research, rural development and government relief works are also deductible.
"While making donations under Sec 80 G make sure you are doing it to institutions approved under Section 80G of the Income Tax Act," says Kapil Narang, chief operating officer, Ameriprise India Advisory Services.

Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014

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It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.” 

Faber doesn’t hesitate to put the blame squarely on President Obama’s big government policies and the Federal Reserve’s risky low-rate policies, which, he says, “penalize the income earners, the savers who save, your parents — why should your parents be forced to speculate in stocks and in real estate and everything under the sun?” 

Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment. 

So with an inevitable crash looming, what are Main Street investors to do?

One option is to sell all your stocks and stuff your money under the mattress, and another option is to risk everything and ride out the storm.

But according to Sean Hyman, founder of Absolute Profits, there is a third option.

“There are specific sectors of the market that are all but guaranteed to perform well during the next few months,” Hyman explains. “Getting out of stocks now could be costly.”

How can Hyman be so sure?

He has access to a secret Wall Street calendar that has beat the overall market by 250% since 1968. This calendar simply lists 19 investments (based on sectors of the market) and 38 dates to buy and sell them, and by doing so, one could turn $1,000 into as much as $300,000 in a 10-year time frame. 

Editor's Note: Sean Hyman Reveals His Secret Wall Street Calendar in This Controversial Video, Click Here

“But this calendar is just one part of my investment system,” Hyman adds. “I also have a Crash Alert System that is designed to warn investors before a major correction as well.”

(The Crash Alert System was actually programmed by one of the individuals who coded nuclear missile flight patterns during the Cold War so that it could be as close to 100% accurate as possible). 

Hyman explains that if the market starts to plunge, the Crash Alert System will signal a sell alert warning investors to go to cash. 

“You would have been able to completely avoid the 2000 and 2008 collapses if you were using this system based on our back-testing,” Hyman explains. “Imagine how much more money you would have if you had avoided those horrific sell-offs.”

One might think Sean is being too confident, but he has proven himself correct in front of millions of people time and time again. 

In a 2012 interview on Bloomberg Television, Hyman correctly predicted that Best Buy would drop down to $11 a share and then it would rally back up to $40 a share over the next few months. The stock did exactly what Hyman predicted.

Then, during a Fox Business interview with Gerri Willis in early 2013, he forecast that the market would rally to new highs of 15,000 despite the massive sell-off that was haunting investors. The stock market almost immediately rebounded and hit Hyman’s targets.

“A lot of people think I am lucky,” Sean said. “But it has nothing to do with luck. It has everything to do with certain tools I use. Tools like the secret Wall Street calendar and my Crash Alert System.”

With more financial uncertainty that ever, thousands of people are flocking to Hyman for his guidance. He has over 114,000 subscribers to his monthly newsletter, and his investment videos have been seen millions of times.

In a recent video, Hyman not only reveals the secret Wall Street calendar, he also shows how his Crash Alert System works so that anybody can follow in his footsteps (click here to watch it now).


MCX Cuts Transaction Charges On Futures Contracts Of All Commodities

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MCX cuts transaction charges to push up volumes 
The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), India's biggest exchange in terms of volumes, has cut transaction charges on futures contracts of all commodities effective Wednesday, in a bid to push up battered volumes.

Volumes at the MCX fell 39 per cent to Rs 76 trillion in the first ten months of the fiscal year beginning April 2013, as investors lost confidence in the exchange after a payment crisis at its spot exchange and restrictions on import of gold, triggering calls among industry participants to revive sentiment.
Transaction charges in precious and base metals and energy contracts have been cut to Rs 2.10 from the earlier Rs 2.5 for every Rs 1 lakh of turnover for members generating an average daily turnover of up to Rs 3.5 billion, and Rs 1.40 per Rs 1 lakh on incremental turnover above Rs 3.5 billion, the company said in a statement.
"Cost of transaction will come down for day traders, so it is a good move. This will help in day traders making multiple and frequent transactions," said Harish Galipelli, vice-president research with Inditrade Derivatives and Commodities.
The bourse has also slashed transaction cost on agricultural commodities by 70 per cent.
For agri-commodity contracts, MCX said it has reduced the fee to Rs 0.75 for every Rs 1 lakh of turnover for members generating monthly average daily turnover volume of up to Rs 200 million, and Rs 0.50 per Rs 1 lakh on incremental turnover above Rs 200 million.

NSEL defaults for 28th time, pays Rs 50 lakh

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NSEL defaults for 28th time, pays Rs 50 lakh


Embattled spot commodity bourse National Spot Exchange (NSEL) has paid Rs 50 lakh against scheduled payment amount of Rs 86.02 crore, defaulting for the 28th straight time.
The bourse has settled Rs 322.6 crore so far against Rs 5,500 crore that it owes to investors.
"The total amount being disbursed today in a proportionate manner is Rs 50 lakhs," NSEL said in a statement on Tuesday.
NSEL had previously defaulted 27 times. The spot exchange was unable to make any payment on its 7th and 13th pay-out date. The exchange had availed a bridge loan of Rs 177.23 crore from its promoter Financial Technologies (FTIL) to make payments on a priority basis to small investors.
To accelerate recovery, NSEL has started the process of liquidation of attached assets of defaulting borrowers. As the first step, the exchange has decided to liquidate assets of Mohan India Group and Vimladevi Agrotech, who together owe around Rs 913 crore.
NSEL, promoted by Jignesh Shah-led FTIL, is facing the problem of settling dues to 148 members after it suspended trade in July last year following a government order in the wake of violation of trading norms.
The bourse had earlier said it plans to settle all the dues in 30 weeks time, by paying Rs 174.72 crore each for first 20 weeks followed by Rs 86.02 crore each in next 10 weeks.

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Gold, Silver may extend gains (bullish),MCX Crude may trade in 6270-6320 Price

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MUMBAI: Bullions counter may continue yesterday gains tracking positive international clues. Gold can move in range of 29800-30300 while silver can hover in range of 47300-48300 in MCX. Some strength in local currency can keep the upside capped in MCX. 



Gold traded near a 17-week high as investors weighed U.S. economic data that missed estimates against weaker physical demand at higher prices. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, expanded yesterday for a third day, the longest stretch of gains since November 2012, and are headed for the first monthly increase since December 2012. China’s net gold imports from Hong Kong were 83.6 metric tons in January, compared with 91.9 tons in December and 19.6 tons a year earlier, SMC Comtrade said in a daily report.

Base metals may witness sideways movement as investors will eye US home sales data today. Copper may trade in range of 442-448 while Lead may move in range of 128-132. Aluminum may move in range of 106-108. Nickel may move in range of 875-895 in MCX. Copper traded near a three-week low after a report showed flagging U.S. consumer confidence and amid concern that China’s growth is slowing, damping demand prospects from the world’s two biggest users. In China, a weaker property market and falling currency fueled concern about the country’s slowing economic growth.

Crude oil prices may trade in range of 6270-6350 in MCX on mixed fundamentals. Today EIA inventory data will give further direction to the prices. The supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the biggest oil-storage hub in the U.S dropped by 1.07 million barrels last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Total U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 822,000 barrels in the week ended Feb. 21, the API said in Washington yesterday. Natural gas may witness some short covering at lower levels as it can move in range of 280-300 in MCX. Forecasts of a thaw for the Eastern U.S. next month sent natural gas futures to the steepest two-day decline in more than six years on speculation of reduced demand for the heating fuel. Futures climbed to five-year highs this month as below-normal temperatures boosted demand, pushing U.S. stockpiles to 10-year seasonal lows, SMC Comtrade said in a daily report,


Warren Buffett's three 'fundamentals of investing'

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Warren Buffett says if you want to learn how to make money from the stock market you should follow these three steps :-

warren Buffett's by www.mcxoperator.com

Warren Buffett says if you want to learn how to make money from the stock market you should look at how he made some money with two small real estate investments.
In an excerpt published by Fortune, from his upcoming annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett writes about his purchase of a Nebraska farm and his investment in a retail property near New York University in Manhattan.

In both cases, he bought when prices were unusually low after bubbles had burst.

In both cases he had no particular expertise.


And most importantly, in both cases he invested because he thought the assets would be increasingly profitable, not because he expected to sell at a higher price.


"With my two small investments, I thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations. Games are won by players who focus on the playing field—not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard."

He warns against "letting the capricious and irrational behavior" of stock prices make an investor "behave irrationally as well."

In addition, Buffett argues, "Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time."

When he bought the properties in 1986 and 1993, economic projections didn't matter to him. "I can't remember what the headlines or pundits were saying at the time. Whatever the chatter, corn would keep growing in Nebraska and students would flock to NYU."

Warren Buffett: Stocks Will Go a 'Lot Higher' Over Time
Warren Buffett tells CNBC's Becky Quick that stock indexes will go a "lot higher" in her lifetime and advises investors not to pay so much attention to short-term moves.
As for not needing expertise, Buffett recommends a low-cost S&P 500 index fund for nonprofessionals, to "own a cross section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well." 

He also urges timid or beginning investors against going into stocks "at a time of extreme exuberance" and becoming "disillusioned when paper losses occur."

"The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs."

His bottom line fundamental advice: "Ignore the chatter, keep your costs minimal, and invest in stocks as you would in a farm."

Benefits of Trading Futures Online

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www.niftyoperator.com

The old days of calling your commodity broker to place a futures trades are fading. However, I believe there will always be a need for a full service commodity broker, but there are many advantages to using and online futures broker.
Reduced Commissions
The most obvious benefit to trading online has to be reduced commissions. This is especially true for large traders and those who trade frequently. Commission rates can sometimes be the difference between a profitable year or a losing year. Commission add up quickly and by trading online you can often slash your trading costs by 50 - 75 percent.
The typical online commission for trading futures is about $5 to $10. The electronic markets are cheaper than the pit-traded markets, but the savings are substantial. The full service broker charges about $40 to $70 per round turn trade. Of course, you have to factor in that the broker is making trading recommendations and a lot of work typically goes into that. There are also broker-assisted accounts where you essentially make the trading decisions but you can bounce ideas off a broker and receive help. The rates for this type of account are typically $15 to $20 for a round turn trade.
Online Futures Learning Curve
A good argument can be made that you will learn more about trading commodities online in the long run than you would under the guidance of a broker. The only reason I bring this up is that many commodity brokers are not good traders. All brokers can certainly help you with the basics, but you can easily learn those on your own. If you are fortunate enough to find an excellent broker who is a good trader, then it is a different story. The problem is that most commodity brokers don’t fall into that category.
One thing I like about trading online is that you take ownership of your own trading decisions. It is 100 percent your call on each trade. You cannot blame the broker for bad trade recommendations or timing. Believe it or not, this will benefit you as a trader in the long run. You will know exactly how well or poorly you are doing based 100 percent on your decisions. This is also a great motivator. Effort will be channeled into fixing your own problems instead of blaming someone else or being led astray by a broker.
There are many practice platforms for trading the futures markets online. Trade-station, for example, allows their clients to trade real time on their online platform or they can trade on the same platform in simulated mode. This allows traders to practice their trading strategies in a very real environment. Essentially, you can switch back and forth from real time mode to simulated mode.
Online Trade Execution
Speed is another factor that clearly benefits trading futures online. There is no questions that it is far quicker to click one button on your computer to place a trade that it is to pick up the phone and call your broker with a futures order. It might not be critical for those who trade with a long term time-frame, but it is for those trading for the quick move. Online trading also makes it much more easy to place and track a variety of resting order in the market such as one- cancel-other (OCO).
Online Broker and You
In reality, arguments can be made by those who support online trading and those who are against it. There are many obvious arguments for online futures trading, but it is all a matter of personal preference. If you are day trading futures, you almost have to trade online. If you are a long term trader, you might see the added benefits of using a full service broker.
My biggest problem, especially for new traders, is that they know virtually nothing about the markets and almost every broker will appear to be an expert to them. You almost have to become a good trader before you can spot a good trader. Most commodity brokers have a difficult time making money for their clients over the long run, especially since they have to cover the added cost of full service commission rates. Some brokers are able to do this, but most of them only accept very large accounts or they are no longer accepting new accounts.
In the end, the odds favor using an online futures broker if you plan on putting in the time and effort to become a commodities trader. You will certainly have to do your homework each day if you trade on your own. Trading is not easy and those who work the hardest and smartest make the most money.


10 Rules for successful Trading

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10 Rules For Successful Trading



Most people who are interested in learning how to become profitable traders need only spend a few minutes online before reading such phrases as "plan your trade; trade your plan" and "keep your losses to a minimum." For new traders, these tidbits of information can seem more like a distraction than any actionable advice. New traders often just want to know how to set up their charts so they can hurry up and make money.


To be successful in trading, however, one needs to understand the importance of and adhere to a set of rules that have guided all types of traders, with a variety of trading account sizes. Each rule alone is important, but when they work together the effects are strong. Trading with these rules can greatly increase the odds of succeeding in the markets.


Rule No.1: Always Use a Trading Plan
A trading plan is a written set of rules that specifies a trader's entry, exit and money management criteria. Using a trading plan allows traders to do this, although it is a time consuming endeavor.


With today's technology, it is easy to test a trading idea before risking real money. Backtesting, applying trading ideas to historical data, allows traders to determine if a trading plan is viable, and also shows the expectancy of the plan's logic. Once a plan has been developed and backtesting shows good results, the plan can be used in real trading. The key here is to stick to the plan. Taking trades outside of the trading plan, even if they turn out to be winners, is considered poor trading and destroys any expectancy the plan may have had. (Learn more about backtesting in Backtesting: Interpreting the Past.)


Rule No.2: Treat Trading Like a Business
In order to be successful, one must approach trading as a full- or part-time business - not as a hobby or a job. As a hobby, where no real commitment to learning is made, trading can be very expensive. As a job it can be frustrating since there is no regular paycheck. Trading is a business, and incurs expenses, losses, taxes, uncertainty, stress and risk. As a trader, you are essentially a small business owner, and must do your research and strategize to maximize your business's potential.


Rule No.3: Use Technology to Your Advantage
Trading is a competitive business, and one can assume the person sitting on the other side of a trade is taking full advantage of technology. Charting platforms allow traders an infinite variety of methods for viewing and analyzing the markets. Backtesting an idea on historical data prior to risking any cash can save a trading account, not to mention stress and frustration. Getting market updates with smartphones allows us to monitor trades virtually anywhere. Even technology that today we take for granted, like high-speed internet connections, can greatly increase trading performance.


Using technology to your advantage, and keeping current with available technological advances, can be fun and rewarding in trading.


Rule No.4: Protect Your Trading Capital
Saving money to fund a trading account can take a long time and much effort. It can be even more difficult (or impossible) the next time around. It is important to note that protecting your trading capital is not synonymous with not having any losing trades. All traders have losing trades; that is part of business. Protecting capital entails not taking any unnecessary risks and doing everything you can to preserve your trading business. 


Rule No.5: Become a Student of the Markets
Think of it as continuing education - traders need to remain focused on learning more each day. Since many concepts carry prerequisite knowledge, it is important to remember that understanding the markets, and all of their intricacies, is an ongoing, lifelong process.


Hard research allows traders to learn the facts, like what the different economic reports mean. Focus and observation allow traders to gain instinct and learn the nuances; this is what helps traders understand how those economic reports affect the market they are trading. 

World politics, events, economies - even the weather - all have an impact on the markets. The market environment is dynamic. The more traders understand the past and current markets, the better prepared they will be to face the future.


Rule No.6: Risk Only What You Can Afford to Lose
In rule No.4, I mentioned that funding a trading account can be a long process. Before a trader begins using real cash, it is imperative that all of the money in the account be truly expendable. If it is not, the trader should keep saving until it is.


It should go without saying that the money in a trading account should not be allocated for the kid's college tuition or paying the mortgage. Traders must never allow themselves to think they are simply "borrowing" money from these other important obligations. One must be prepared to lose all the money allocated to a trading account.


Losing money is traumatic enough; it is even more so if it is capital that should have never been risked to begin with.


Rule No.7: Develop a Trading Methodology Based on Facts
Taking the time to develop a sound trading methodology is worth the effort. It may be tempting to believe in the "so easy it's like printing money" trading scams that are prevalent on the internet. But facts, not emotions or hope, should be the inspiration behind developing a trading plan.


Traders who are not in a hurry to learn typically have an easier time sifting through all of the information available on the internet. Consider this: if you were to start a new career, more than likely you would need to study at a college or university for at least a year or two before you were qualified to even apply for a position in the new field. Expect that learning how to trade demands at least the same amount of time and factually driven research and study. 


Rule No.8: Always Use a Stop Loss
A stop loss is a predetermined amount of risk that a trader is willing to accept with each trade. The stop loss can be either a dollar amount or percentage, but either way it limits the trader's exposure during a trade. Using a stop loss can take some of the emotion out of trading, since we know that we will only lose X amount on any given trade.


Ignoring a stop loss, even if it leads to a winning trade, is bad practice. Exiting with a stop loss, and thereby having a losing trade, is still good trading if it falls within the trading plan's rules. While the preference is to exit all trades with a profit, it is not realistic. Using a protective stop loss helps ensure that our losses and our risk are limited.


Rule No.9: Know When to Stop Trading
There are two reasons to stop trading: an ineffective trading plan, and an ineffective trader.


An ineffective trading plan shows much greater losses than anticipated in historical testing. Markets may have changed, volatility within a certain trading instrument may have lessened, or the trading plan simply is not performing as well as expected. One will benefit by remaining unemotional and businesslike. It might be time to reevaluate the trading plan and make a few changes, or to start over with a new trading plan. An unsuccessful trading plan is a problem that needs to be solved. It is not necessarily the end of the trading business.


An ineffective trader is one who is unable to follow his or her trading plan. External stressors, poor habits and lack of physical activity can all contribute to this problem. A trader who is not in peak condition for trading should consider a break to deal with any personal problems, be it health or stress or anything else that prohibits the trader from being effective. After any difficulties and challenges have been dealt with, the trader can resume.


Rule No.10: Keep Trading in Perspective
It is important to stay focused on the big picture when trading. A losing trade should not surprise us - it is a part of trading. Likewise, a winning trade is just one step along the path to profitable trading. It is the cumulative profits that make a difference. Once a trader accepts wins and losses as part of the business, emotions will have less of an effect on trading performance. That is not to say that we cannot be excited about a particularly fruitful trade, but we must keep in mind that a losing trade is not far off.


Setting realistic goals is an essential part of keeping trading in perspective. If a trader has a small trading account, he or she should not expect to pull in huge returns. A 10% return on a $10,000 account is quite different than a 10% return on a $1,000,000 trading account. Work with what you have, and remain sensible.


Conclusion
Understanding the importance of each or these trading rules, and how they work together, can help traders establish a viable trading business. Trading is hard work, and traders who have the discipline and patience to follow these rules can increase their odds of success in a very competitive arena.

Natural Gas Nears Biggest Weekly Gain Since 2010

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Do you really know why NG is trading near high?

Natural gas futures were near their biggest weekly gain in more than three years amid forecasts that cold weather will return to the U.S.

Futures for March delivery jumped as much as 3.8 percent to $6.294 per million British thermal units in today’s electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The intraday high put the contract’s gain for the week ahead of the 19.8 percent for the period ended Jan. 24, which was the largest weekly increase since October 2010. Futures traded at $6.247 as of 5:02 p.m. in Singapore, and the volume of all futures traded was about 20 percent below the 100-day average.

The contract dropped 1.4 percent yesterday as a government report showed U.S. gas inventories declined less than analysts estimated. Still, prices this week topped $6 for the first time since 2010 on forecasts for a surge of cold air following unusually mild weather this week.

“Weather forecasts will cause price volatility through March, but we expect end-March storage to come in at 1.1 trillion cubic feet, the lowest since 2004,” Adam Longson, a New York-based analyst for Morgan Stanley, said in an e-mailed report yesterday.

Above-normal temperatures across most of the lower 48 U.S. states this week will give way to a “powerful polar punch” in the Midwest from Feb. 25 through March 1, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. The cold will hit the South and East Coast next week through March 8.


Chicago’s low on Feb. 27 will drop to minus 2 Fahrenheit (minus 19 Celsius), 27 below normal, while New York City will slide to 17 degrees, 14 lower than average, said AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. About 49 percent of U.S. households use gas for heating, led by the Midwest and the Northeast, data show from the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report yesterday that gas stockpiles dropped 250 billion cubic feet in the week ended Feb. 14 to 1.443 trillion cubic feet. The median of 24 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg expected a decline of 257 billion.

The inventory report showed a decline that was bigger than the five-year average drop of 133 billion cubic feet. The compared with the five-year average widened to a record 34 percent from 27 percent the previous week, yesterday’s report showed. Supplies were 40 percent below year-earlier inventories.